The dumb money is on total chaos

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But unfortunately they don't always work. How to predict the near future When I write a near-future work of fiction, one set, say, a decade hence, there used to be a recipe that worked eerily well. This essay is polemical, intended to highlight the existence of a problem and spark a discussion, rather than a canned solution. But it's impossible to punch a corporation, and it may not even be possible to identify the source of unfair bias when you're dealing with a machine learning system.

We modern changeobsessed humans tendConsider his own companies

We modern, change-obsessed humans tend to repeat our biggest social mistakes when they slip out of living memory, which means they recur on a time scale of seventy to a hundred years. Consider his own companies. Solar City is a photovoltaic panel maximizer. Or rather, I write science fiction, much of it about our near future, which has in recent years become ridiculously hard to predict.

As it happens, airliners today are slower than they were in the s, and don't get me started about Nazis. But neuroscience isn't a secret, and sooner or later some really unscrupulous people will try to see how far they can push it. Let me give you a more specific scenario. Your phone will be aware of precisely what you like to look at on its screen. Sooner or later, the use of propaganda bot armies in cyberwar will go global, and at that point, our social discourse will be irreparably poisoned.

Apple pulled it like a hot potato when word got out. The purpose of this is to make it difficult for a phone thief to get anywhere if they steal your device. What we're getting, instead, is self-optimizing tools that defy human comprehension but are not, in fact, any more like our kind of intelligence than a Boeing is like a seagull. At this point in a talk I'd usually go into an impassioned rant about the hideous corruption and evil of Facebook, but I'm guessing you've heard it all before so I won't bother. And unfortunately most of those people are industry insiders.

And this won't simply be billionaires like the Koch brothers and Robert Mercer in the United States throwing elections to whoever will hand them the biggest tax cuts. However, Marples accumulated a considerable personal fortune during this time by owning shares in a motorway construction corporation. It turns out that the human brain's reward feedback loops are relatively easy to game.